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How the UK’s Covid reopening has proved Imperial’s pessimistic modelling wrong –

Here is what government scientists said would happen and what we know now



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Prof Fergusons team warned: A return to higher transmissibility levels after non-pharmaceutical interventions are lifted will also lead to a third wave of hospitalisations comparable in magnitude to the current wave and called for mask wearing and hand hygiene to continue after full lifting.
Under the February modelling which informed the roadmap, hospitalisations should be starting to tick up around now, but there is no evidence of that happening, with cases down 11 per cent in the past week.

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