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2020 polls: The Trump ‘hidden voter’ isn’t a real threat this election – here’s why – The Independent

House district-level polling is being closely monitored by experts, as it was the canary in the Trump coal mine in 2016. Thus far, that polling actually predicts…

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Last week, a theory of the Donald Trump presidential upset in 2016 resurfaced when the pollster who predicted it said a repeat is in store on November 3 for the same reason: Trump voters are too darn shy (i.e. embarrassed) to honestly state their intentions.  
Pollster Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group calls it the social desirability bias theory. This posits that when dealing with a live caller, the person being asked the questions will craft their answer in a way that puts them in the best…

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